The basic reproduction number (R0) is the average number of secondary infections generated by one infected person in a totally susceptible population #2019nCoV— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 25, 2020
The claim that the new coronavirus has an R0 of 3.8 is based on this paper https://t.co/chhqlh1S7P— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 25, 2020
The authors of that paper emphasize the high degree of uncertainty and have already downgraded their estimate to an R0 of 2.5 https://t.co/SwMoQm58hz
Moreover, R0 is not the only statistic that matters. Some diseases are extremely infectious but not very lethal; others are the inverse.— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 25, 2020
Infectiousness can change dramatically depending on the population in question and circumstances. #2019nCoV
It's estimated, for example, that control measures reduced the R0 of SARS from ~2.9 to 0.4. (This might be the source of the erroneously cited "modest" 0.49 "viral attack rate" for SARS in the viral thread)— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 25, 2020
Reference: https://t.co/YoZZRZhTR0
Following numerous critiques, the most inaccurate tweet in the original viral thread disappeared/was probably deleted without explanation or follow-up correction. For transparency and posterity, this is what it looked like.— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 25, 2020
The info in the pictured tweet is unequivocally wrong pic.twitter.com/MgWb6CnCPd
I'd like to thank everyone who has been sharing my thread. You are helping to combat misinformation and alarmism. Some people think it is futile to try, but you are proving them wrong.— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 25, 2020
Critical thinking is a skill—a muscle. We have a collective responsibility to exercise it.
— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 26, 2020
This is a great resource: an interactive map of confirmed novel coronavirus infections and deaths around the world, frequently updated.— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 26, 2020
Created by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering, John Hopkins University. Last update: 10PM EST Jan 25https://t.co/uzj1ZR2DVW pic.twitter.com/TRyZ6tL0v7